Forecasting demand for fish products in retail: seasons, campaigns and day-to-day sales

Forecasting demand for fish products Start with the daily sales history of fresh fillets, hot-smoked products, cold-smoked products and gravlax. By calculating an individual baseline demand for each product and taking into account the day of the week, the season and any campaigns, you can order domestic rainbow trout closer to actual sales. In the Kauhajoki or Kankaanpää store, this helps keep the fish counter appealing without an unnecessarily large stock.

Forecasting demand for fish products starts with daily sales

Collect at least eight weeks of sales data by product and by day of the week. Exclude days when the product was out of stock, as actual sales then do not reflect total demand. Also, mark campaigns, public holidays and abnormal deliveries. This way, the sales of an ordinary Friday will not be confused with the sales of Easter or the week before Christmas.

If fresh rainbow trout fillet sells an average of 18 kg on eight ordinary Fridays, you can use this figure as a starting point for the following ordinary Friday. A five percent safety margin raises the requirement to 18.9 kilograms. Round the order according to the pack size and check whether you can get a top-up for the weekend. Planning of pack sizes and delivery schedule helps to match the batch to the actual sales period.

Product-specific daily sales indicate how much rainbow trout should be ordered for the next sales period.

Seasons change the ratio of fresh and processed rainbow trout

Christmas, Easter, Midsummer and graduation weeks increase the overall demand for fish, but the product categories do not grow in the same proportion. Gravad and cold-smoked rainbow trout are emphasised on celebratory tables, whereas fresh fillets and hot-smoked rainbow trout serve both everyday meals and the weekend. Therefore, make a separate forecast for each product instead of increasing the entire range by the same percentage.

Local demand varies according to the store's customer base. In Kauhajoki, the previous day's sales provide a basis for the planning of the farmed rainbow trout batch in Kauhajoki, whereas Kankaanpää's product range and order quantities It is worth sizing it based on the figures for that particular point of sale. In addition, take into account payday, local events and the weather, if they are reflected in past sales.

Forecasting demand for fish products for a campaign

Calculate the campaign factor by comparing the sales of the previous campaign with the sales of a similar normal period. If the usual Friday sales of the file are 18 kg and the corresponding campaign increased demand by 60 percent, the baseline forecast for the next campaign is 28.8 kg. With a short delivery interval, you can order about 29 kg and replenish according to demand. Without the possibility of replenishment, you need a larger buffer, but at the same time the risk of waste increases.

Compare only similar campaigns with each other. Price, display, ad space and campaign duration affect the result. One successful weekend does not yet form a reliable coefficient. Record the actual sales, sell-outs and waste after every campaign so that the next order is based on your own observation.

Replenish quickly and track waste at product level

Fresh fish requires closer monitoring than products with a longer shelf life. Check the stock, the daily forecast and the next delivery time in the morning. Update the order if actual sales deviate from the forecast. Rågårds Lax supplies domestic rainbow trout fresh, hot-smoked, cold-smoked and gravad to business customers across Finland.

Track wastage in kilograms and as a percentage for each product. If you order 100 kg a week and record a wastage of 6 kg, the wastage rate is 6 %. However, simply reducing wastage is not enough if the product repeatedly runs out before the busiest sales period. With Rågårds Lax, you can plan your product range, order quantities and restocking by telephone on +358 6 222 9143.